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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 110832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 72 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 120W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-11 10:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 ...FAY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN NEW YORK... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.4N 73.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF ALBANY NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay was located near latitude 42.4 North, longitude 73.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today, tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will continue to move across portions of eastern New York this morning, then across northwestern New England later today and over southeastern Canada tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day so, and the post-tropical cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The post-tropical cyclone is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern New York into portions of New England. This rain may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected; however, rapid rises on small streams and isolated minor flooding is possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 110832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 ...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 118.3W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 118.3 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin soon and Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-07-11 10:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.3W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.3W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-11 10:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110831 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 73.9W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 74.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 52.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.4N 73.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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