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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 103.8W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 103.8 West. Cristina is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072033 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.8N 105.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 110.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 112.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 114.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 119.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.8N 125.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 103.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-07-07 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 8(66) X(66) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 5(36) X(36) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 12(52) X(52) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) X(27) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 10(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-07 16:48:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071448 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Early morning microwave and first-light visible imagery revealed that the center of Cristina was located well to the east-northeast of previous estimates. The center is now located near the end of a long curved band that goes around portions of its western semicircle. The center position relative to the convection suggests that at least some northeasterly shear is negatively affecting the organization of Cristina and it may not be well vertically aligned yet. Various satellite intensity estimates have increased since the last advisory, but were also based in part on an assumption that the center of Cristina was located farther west, so the initial wind speed has been conservatively held at 35 kt for now. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount to the east of the previous one, mainly due to the updated initial position. That said, the overall thinking behind the forecast has not changed. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Cristina on a general west-northwestward path through the end of the week. The official forecast is very near the latest multi-model consensus at all forecast times. The shear and some nearby dry air that appear to have inhibited Cristina's organization so far are not expected to persist as negative factors for much longer. All of the models still forecast strengthening, and given the very favorable environment that the cyclone will encounter in a day or two, a period of rapid intensification at some point would not be surprising. The NHC forecast remains near the high end of the guidance envelope, near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Cristina is forecast to reach cooler waters that will likely lead to weakening over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.2N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-07 16:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 071446 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 102.8W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 102.8 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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