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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 40A
2021-09-10 19:52:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101751 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.8N 59.5W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 59.5 West. Larry is moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-10 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 The satellite presentation of Olaf has significantly degraded over the past several hours after the center moved across the southern portion of Baja California Sur overnight. The system's organized convection has collapsed, and infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud top temperatures are rapidly warming near the estimated center position. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which now makes Olaf a tropical storm. This estimate may still be generous, but limited surface observations and radar data make it difficult to confidently assess the intensity. Hopefully, scatterometer data this afternoon will provide more insight into changes in Olaf's surface wind field. The tropical storm has slowed down a bit since last night, and its estimated motion is northwest (310 degrees) at 9 kt. Recent microwave imagery suggests the center of Olaf is just offshore the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, and the cyclone is likely to move roughly parallel to the coast today. Then, a strong mid-level high pressure ridge centered over the southern Rockies is expected to build westward to the north of Olaf. This ridge should turn Olaf toward the west by tonight, and then toward the southwest through early next week. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous forecast once again, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Olaf is likely to continue rapidly weakening during the next couple of days. In the short-term, its proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula will disrupt its ability to sustain organized convection. As Olaf moves away from land, the cyclone will encounter decreasing sea-surface temperatures and very dry mid-level air, which should expedite its transition into a post-tropical cyclone. In fact, the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery show Olaf becoming completely devoid of convection within the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows more rapid weakening than the previous one, primarily based on recent satellite trends and the lower initial intensity. The official forecast remains below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are inflated by the SHIPS and LGEM models that fail to weaken Olaf during the next 24 h. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula today, with tropical storm conditions continuing over southern portions of Baja California Sur through this evening. These winds should diminish tonight as Olaf continues weakening and turns westward away from land. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 24.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-10 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101448 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-10 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101448 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM OLAF BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 111.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward and around the peninsula to Loreto A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 111.3 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and then move westward away from land by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday and weaken to a remnant low on Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward across central portions of Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 40
2021-09-10 16:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101448 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 Larry remains a well organized hurricane at a high latitude, and it is quickly approaching southeastern Newfoundland. Satellite images show a fairly tight inner core and large curved bands surrounding that feature. However, there are some notable dry slots between the core and bands that have developed during the past several hours. The latest Dvorak numbers have nudged downward, with the CI values ranging between 65 kt and 72 kt. Based on these estimates, and a very recent ASCAT pass that showed peak winds near 65 kt, the initial intensity is set at 70 kt for this advisory. The cyclone remains quite large, with hurricane-force winds and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend outward up to 80 and 210 n mi from the center, respectively. The hurricane is in the process of turning to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be a fairly quick 015/25 kt. An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two as the hurricane moves in the fast flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S./eastern Canada and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This motion should take Larry across southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry is then expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Larry will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream Current later today, the hurricane will likely hold its strength or weaken just a little before landfall. After landfall, the models show the inner core dissipating, and the combination of land interaction, cooler waters, and an increase in shear should cause weakening and lead to extratropical transition by early Saturday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS model, which often performs well for hurricanes that transition to extratropical cyclones. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 40.0N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 57.5N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z 61.1N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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