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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-09-11 01:52:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102352 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 113.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will continue moving away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 41A
2021-09-11 01:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 102341 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.9N 56.5W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 44.9 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Canadian buoy 44139 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). Canadian Buoy 44139 recently reported a pressure of 962.1 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, and tropical storm conditions are starting to spread into the area at this time. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-09-10 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102045 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 The low-level center of Olaf is completely exposed in visible satellite imagery this afternoon. The system has been devoid of organized convection since around 1200 UTC, and Olaf is at risk of losing its status as a tropical cyclone overnight if it is unable to generate new convection within the next 12 h. Despite its lack of convection, a weather station at Puerto Cortes measured sustained tropical-storm-force winds several hours ago as the center of Olaf passed very near the observation site, and it has more recently reported several tropical-storm-force gusts. The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory based on the aforementioned surface observations and T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Olaf has rapidly weakened today, and this weakening trend is expected to continue during the next couple of days. The cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures and into a drier, more stable environment that should largely suppress new convective development. Model simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that Olaf will struggle to produce any new convection by tomorrow, and the intensity guidance consensus favors continued weakening as the vortex spins down. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Olaf becoming a 25-kt remnant low by 24 h. The remnant low is forecast to linger around for several days after, but remain weak as it moves over the open waters of the eastern Pacific. The tropical storm has begun moving more westward away from Baja California Sur, and its initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge building to the north of Olaf should steer the cyclone westward tonight into Saturday. By late Saturday, the shallow cyclone will begin moving southwestward as it is steered around a low-level ridge to its northwest. The official NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is moving away from the Baja California peninsula, and lingering tropical storm conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur are forecast to diminish this evening. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.6N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 24.7N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z 22.3N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z 21.4N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 13
2021-09-10 22:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 540 WTPZ35 KNHC 102045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 112.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur Mexico south of Santa Fe and around the peninsula to Loreto. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 112.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A weather station at Puerto Cortes reported a wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 41
2021-09-10 22:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 691 WTNT42 KNHC 102044 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 Even though Larry is crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream Current, the hurricane remains well organized and has changed little during the past several hours. Satellite images and radar data indicate that Larry still has an inner core, though the southern side has eroded some. Large curved bands surround the inner core region, with dry slots noted between the core and bands. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt based mostly on the ASCAT data from earlier today, which showed peak winds of around 65 kt to the east of the center. It should be noted that this intensity value is above the Dvorak estimates, which are often not as reliable for high latitude storms like Larry. The earlier ASCAT data confirmed that Larry is a large cyclone with hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 90 n mi and 220 n mi from the center, respectively. Larry is rapidly approaching southeastern Newfoundland, and weather conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate there in a few hours. The hurricane continues to accelerate to the north-northeast, and the latest initial motion estimate is 020/30 kt. An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or so as the hurricane moves in the fast flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S./eastern Canada and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This motion should take Larry across southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry is then expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the middle of the tightly clustered models. Larry is expected to maintain its intensity through landfall in Newfoundland tonight. However, a combination of land interaction, much cooler SSTs, and an increase in shear are expected to promote weakening shortly after landfall. Larry should be fully extratropical early Saturday morning when it is forecast to be exiting Newfoundland and moving over the cold waters of the Labrador Sea. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the GFS model, which often performs well for hurricanes that transition to extratropical cyclones. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 43.5N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1800Z 54.9N 46.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0600Z 58.6N 42.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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