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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-05-19 10:31:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 190830 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-05-19 10:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190830 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 70.6W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 70.6W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 80SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 70.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 11
2020-05-19 10:30:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190830 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020 ...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO BECOME POST TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 70.6W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 70.6 West. Arthur is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected this morning. Arthur is then forecast to slow down and turn toward the south in another day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Arthur is forecast to become post-tropical later today. Slight strengthening is possible this morning, but a general weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday. Arthur is expected to dissipate by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-05-19 04:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190252 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Arthur's cloud shield has shifted to the left or north side of the cyclone's direction of motion since the previous advisory, which is a distinctive sign of a tropical cyclone beginning to lose its tropical characteristics, especially now due to the cyclone moving over 23 deg C sea-surface temperatures. However, there remains enough convection within 45-75 nmi of the center for Arthur to still be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt based on a recent 0129 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that indicated several 50-51 kt wind vectors existed in the northwestern quadrant. The initial motion estimate is 070/13 kt. Arthur should move east- northeastward tonight and then turn toward the east by Tuesday morning as the cyclone moves around the northern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. On day 2, all of the global models are forecasting the mid- and upper-level circulations to separate from the low-level circulation, with the latter feature dropping southeastward and then southward around the eastern portion of a low-level ridge. The new track forecast is similar to but slightly east of the previous advisory track on days 2 and 3, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN and GFEX. Only slight strengthening is expected during the next day or so due to baroclinic effects while Arthur undergoes extratropical transition. Data from NOAA Buoy 44014, located west Arthur's center, indicate that a cold front passed over that station around 2300 UTC, which would place the front about 50-75 nmi west of the cyclone at this time. Therefore, a merger with the front is likely during the next 12 hours. The system should begin to steadily weaken shortly after 24 hours when Arthur will be moving over SSTs near 20 deg C, and in conjunction with the aforementioned decoupling of the circulations. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 36.4N 72.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 36.9N 70.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/0000Z 36.4N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0000Z 33.7N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1200Z 32.3N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z 30.9N 64.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 10
2020-05-19 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 956 WTNT31 KNHC 190251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 ...ARTHUR MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.4N 72.4W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 72.4 West. Arthur is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue tonight. A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday. A slower motion toward the southeast or south-southeast is expected to begin Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will continue to move out to sea away from the east coast of the United States. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, Arthur is expected to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. NOAA Buoy 44014 located about 100 miles (160 km) west of Arthur's center recently measured a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). Also, NOAA Buoy 41001 located about 120 miles (200 km) southeast of the center recently measured a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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