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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-05-18 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 180834 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 76.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 76.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.5N 72.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.5N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 35.6N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.4N 65.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N 63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-05-18 07:40:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180539 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 200 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 ...ARTHUR MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 76.7W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur later today. A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina later today. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through today, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 6
2020-05-18 04:59:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 180259 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ARTHUR HAS CHANGED LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 76.9W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 76.9 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on Monday. A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will remain well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina overnight, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure measured by the reconnaissance aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-05-18 04:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 180256 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 18 10(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 34 14 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MOREHEAD CITY 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 7(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-05-18 04:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 180256 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Arthur's appearance in radar and satellite imagery has degraded significantly since the previous advisory with very little convective banding features present now. However, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone late this afternoon and early has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt in the eastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface wind speeds of 36-38 kt, plus a central pressure of 1003 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt for this advisory since higher wind speeds could be present within areas of convection north of the center that were not sampled. Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Arthur has continued to move north-northeastward or 020/09 kt. The cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Monday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and frontal system, and remain just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. By Tuesday night, Arthur will be entering the strong mid-latitude Westerlies, which will steer cyclone eastward and also induce extratropical transition when the cyclone merges with the aforementioned frontal system. The new NHC track guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant cross-track changes were required. However, some slight changes to the forward were required on days 2 and 3, and the new NHC track forecast now shows Arthur moving a little faster to the east and southeast on those days. Arthur is currently moving over the warmest waters in the Gulfstream where ocean temperatures are 26-26.5 deg C. However, some mid-level shear undercutting the otherwise upper-level outflow pattern, coupled with the entrainment of dry mid-level air has disrupted the overall convective pattern. These unfavorable conditions should continue for the next coupe of days, with only intermittent bursts of deep convection occuring near the center until Arthur passes northeast of the Outer Banks by late Monday. Thereafter, baroclinic effects along with extratropical transition are expected to cause some further strengthening before weakening begins late Tuesday and on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast follows a blend of the intensity consensus model IVCN, and the GFS and ECMWF model forecasts. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 32.4N 76.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 34.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 35.8N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 36.4N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 36.0N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1200Z 35.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 33.8N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 31.6N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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