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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-05-18 22:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 182039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 2100 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 74.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.9N 71.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.0N 68.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.2N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 90SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.8N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 31.5N 64.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 73.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-05-18 19:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181738 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 200 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 ...CENTER OF ARTHUR MOVING AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA WHILE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE OUTER BANKS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 74.7W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Ocracoke Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 74.7 West. Arthur is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the east on Tuesday. A slower southeast or south-southeast motion is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will continue to move away from the North Carolina Outer Banks this afternoon. Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. While some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics late tonight or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center, primarily over water to the east of the center. A WeatherFlow observing site at Alligator River Bridge measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) earlier this afternoon. A wind gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) was recently reported at Oregon Inlet. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through this afternoon. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through this afternoon, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-05-18 16:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 181442 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Arthur has become a little better organized this morning with an overall increase in convection and banding noted since overnight. The first couple of reconnaissance aircraft passes through the center have shown that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb. The plane has also reported several believable SFMR winds of 38-43 kt, and the anemometer on buoy 41025 at an elevation of only 4 m has reported a peak 1-minute wind of 37 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. The forward speed of Arthur has continued to increase and the estimated motion is north-northeast at 14 kt. The cyclone should turn northeastward later today and begin moving away from the North Carolina Outer Banks as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. By Tuesday, Arthur is forecast to turn eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a deepening trough over the central and western Atlantic is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southeastward as the steering flow turns northwestward. The GFS and ECMWF are now in relatively good agreement on this scenario and the new NHC track forecast lies between those typically reliable models and the multi-model consensus aids. Although the vertical shear is increasing over the storm and it is soon moving over cooler waters, some strengthening due to baroclinic process is predicted over the next 24 hours. The storm should merge with a frontal boundary late tonight or early Tuesday which will complete Arthur's transition to an extratropical cyclone. By Wednesday, the post-tropical cyclone should begin to weaken as the frontal gradients decrease. The post-tropical cyclone should dissipate in about 96 h. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there today. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 35.1N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 37.2N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z 36.8N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 35.5N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 8
2020-05-18 16:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 298 WTNT31 KNHC 181441 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 ...CENTER OF ARTHUR PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS... ...STORM BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.1N 75.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 75.2 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east on Tuesday. A slower southeast or south-southeast motion is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will begin moving away from the North Carolina Outer Banks this afternoon. Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States tonight and Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center, primarily over water to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41025 located about 20 miles (30 km) southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, reported sustained winds of 43 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through early afternoon. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through this afternoon, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-05-18 16:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 307 FONT11 KNHC 181441 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 23(33) X(33) X(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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