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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-04-26 04:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 260231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 0300 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 118.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-04-25 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252032 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 200 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 The overall organization of the depression has changed little since this morning. Its well-defined but exposed center is displaced north of the active convection. Since the organization of the cyclone is largely unchanged, the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. This is also supported by the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. There is no change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is still forecast to track generally northwestward today and tonight, and then turn westward on Sunday. Although it is not explicitly shown in the forecast, some minimal short-term strengthening is possible today and the system could briefly become a tropical storm. A combination of dry air, increasing shear, and cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to weaken by tomorrow, and it will likely become a remnant low within 36 hours. The remnant low could then persist for another day or so before dissipating early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 14.5N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.1N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.6N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-04-25 22:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 252031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 2100 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-04-25 22:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 252031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 200 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... ...NOT FORECAST TO LAST LONG... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 116.9W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 116.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated today or tonight. The system is forecast to become a remnant low by late Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-04-25 22:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 252031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 2100 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.9W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.9W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.6N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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