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Hurricane Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2021-08-21 10:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 790 FONT12 KNHC 210853 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TUXPAN MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TUXPAN MX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TUXPAN MX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-08-21 10:52:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210852 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 97.8W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 97.8W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 97.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N 99.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.1N 101.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 97.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 31A
2021-08-21 07:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210557 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 100 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...GRACE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF TUXPAN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 97.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite imagery and radar data from Mexico indicate that Grace has made landfall along the coast of Mexico near Tecolutla, Mexico, just prior to 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC). At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located just inland near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 97.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to farther inland over mainland Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center is making landfall through early this morning. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico through early this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico through this morning. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 21A
2021-08-21 07:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210552 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 73.4W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late today or tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 31
2021-08-21 05:00:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210300 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Hurricane Grace has rapidly intensified this evening. Deep cold convection has been wrapping around the center, with some evidence of mesovorticies rotating within the eyewall following the GOES-16 GLM lightning data. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters arrived in Grace around 0000 UTC and found that the storm had intensified into Category 2 hurricane with the pressure dropping down to 967 mb, which is a pronounced deepening rate of 2 mb per hour compared to the previous advisory. More recently, the aircraft was able to pass through the northeastern eyewall, and recently found flight level winds up to 115 kt with SFMR winds of 105 kt. These observations support Grace being upgraded to a major hurricane this advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 105 kt. Some additional strengthening is possible while Grace remains over the very warm waters in the Bay of Campeche, though the hurricane should be making landfall tonight within the next 3-6 hours just south of Tuxpan, Mexico. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be well inland, and rapid weakening will likely be underway over the very mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico. The latest NHC intensity forecast now had Grace dissipating over Mexico in about 36 hours. However, as discussed in previous advisories, while the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate, the mid-level vortex is forecast to survive the passage of Mexico, and this feature is likely to lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin later this weekend or early next week. Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that Grace has stayed on a mostly due westward heading, at 270/9 kt. This general motion, though with a bit more southward component should continue through landfall and dissipation. This southward deflection over often occurs with strong hurricanes in this region, due to the topographical effects of the wind field to the north ascending over the higher terrain. The official NHC track is very similar to the previous advisory, and remains near the middle of the guidance consensus. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico beginning tonight and tomorrow morning within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. A dangerous storm surge is likely near and to the north of the where the center of Grace crosses the coast of Mexico. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.7N 96.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 20.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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