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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-08-22 11:06:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220905 CCA TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 26...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged overnight and early this morning. Deep convection remains over the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection band that wraps around the circulation forming a loose banding-eye feature. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before. The initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more hours and should provide additional information on the storm's intensity. Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt. The storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians. Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long Island and into southern New England later this morning or early this afternoon. There is still a little spread in the track guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours, and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS which are slightly to the left. Regardless of the exact landfall location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far from the center. After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New England. Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become post-tropical shortly thereafter. With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location. These updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in radar imagery. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas within the next couple of hours. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 40.1N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2021-08-22 10:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 220852 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 16(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CONCORD NH 34 8 26(34) 4(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) CONCORD NH 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 10 17(27) 3(30) 9(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WORCESTER MA 34 70 20(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) WORCESTER MA 50 12 22(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) WORCESTER MA 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 50 29(79) 2(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 3 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 64 15(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BOSTON MA 50 9 11(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BOSTON MA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 78 2(80) X(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) HYANNIS MA 50 15 3(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NANTUCKET MA 34 81 X(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NANTUCKET MA 50 16 X(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 50 65 9(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) PROVIDENCE RI 64 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 36 11(47) 1(48) 1(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) NEW HAVEN CT 34 58 13(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) NEW HAVEN CT 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW HAVEN CT 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 64 18(82) 1(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) HARTFORD CT 50 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 94 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) NEW LONDON CT 50 33 7(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW LONDON CT 64 8 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALBANY NY 34 2 11(13) 2(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 5 8(13) 1(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 50 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MONTAUK POINT 64 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLIP NY 34 27 5(32) 1(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Henri Public Advisory Number 26
2021-08-22 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220852 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...OUTER BANDS OF HENRI MOVING ONSHORE IN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 71.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 71.2 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island late this morning or early this afternoon. After landfall, a turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning, and Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area today, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next hour or two. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning and continuing into tonight. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania today into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Henri Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-08-22 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220852 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS * BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 71.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 80SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 71.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 71.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Henri Public Advisory Number 25A
2021-08-22 07:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220552 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...HENRI HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 71.0W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case beginning within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case beginning within the next 12 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected later this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island today. After landfall, a turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Reports from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible early this morning. Weakening is expected to begin later today. However, Henri is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area today, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning and continuing into tonight. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and New Jersey today into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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