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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-22 22:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222053 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri's satellite and radar signatures have continued to erode during the day today owing to moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of drier and more stable air off of the cooler Atlantic waters. The primary rain shield has shifted into the western semicircle, which is typical for tropical cyclones that are in the early stages of undergoing extratropical transition. Doppler radar velocity data from Upton, New York, and Boston, Massachusetts, along with surface observations indicate that Henri's peak winds have continued to decrease, with any tropical-storm-force winds now confined to the offshore waters of Long Island Sound. Additional spin down of the vortex and weakening of the low-level wind field are anticipated due to land interaction and entrainment of additional stable air. As a result of these unfavorable conditions, Henri should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon or evening. Henri is now moving west-northwestward or 290/06 kt. The tropical storm has finally made the much anticipated sharp turn toward the west-northwest around the northeastern periphery of a mid- to upper-level low currently located over southern New Jersey. These two weather systems are forecast to slowly dumbbell in a counter- clockwise motion, with Henri's circulation absorbing the other low by Monday morning, possibly resulting in Henri stalling near the New York-Connecticut border. By early Monday afternoon, a weak mid-tropospheric shortwave currently moving across the Great Lakes region is expected to eject the cyclone or its remnants eastward to east-northeastward across southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine by Monday night, before dissipating near or over Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE. Although Henri's winds will be weakening, the cyclone will still continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 41.6N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 42.6N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 43.0N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 43.6N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 28
2021-08-22 22:40:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...HENRI WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CONNECTICUT... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 72.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 72.4 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, mainly over Long Island Sound. A sustained wind of 29 mph (47 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently measured by a private weather station at Orient Point on eastern Long Island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along coastal areas of Connecticut and northern Long Island during the next few hours. SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2021-08-22 22:40:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 222040 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WORCESTER MA 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 43 3(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BOSTON MA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 34 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HARTFORD CT 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) NEW LONDON CT 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ALBANY NY 34 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 12 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-08-22 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 222039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 72.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 72.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 73.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.6N 73.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.0N 70.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.6N 66.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 72.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 27A
2021-08-22 20:10:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221809 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Corrected initial latitude and distance to reference points in summary block. ...HENRI SLOWS DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN RHODE ISLAND... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.4N 71.8W ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM N OF WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including Long Island * Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 71.8 West. Henri is now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected this afternoon. The center of Henri is currently located inland over southwestern Rhode Island. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, with an east-northeastward motion across northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on expected on Monday. Data from Doppler radars and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected now that Henri has moved inland over southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from nearby surface observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...1-2 ft Flushing, NY to Merrimack River, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area into tonight. TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across parts of southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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