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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 38
2021-10-02 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 020239 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 61.2W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 315SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 61.2W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.5N 60.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.7N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.6N 52.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 43.0N 47.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 47.2N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 50.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 54.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 37A
2021-10-02 01:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 012347 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 800 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...CORE OF SAM NOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT... ...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 61.5W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 61.5 West. Sam is moving moving just east of due north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-10-01 22:43:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012043 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Victor is looking disorganized. Deep convection has decreased in organization and coverage this afternoon. No recent microwave imagery has been available to assess the structure of the storm, but visible images from MET-11 and GOES-17 suggest that the circulation of the tropical storm is still elongated southwest-to-northeast. The intensity estimate remains 55 kt for this advisory, but this is on the high end of the recent estimates and could be generous. Compared to the large changes made this morning, almost no change was made to the official track forecast this afternoon. The model consensus has shifted substantially back to the right, and now lies very near the previous NHC forecast. Victor is forecast to turn northwestward tomorrow, and then continue on that heading through early next week, steered by ridging to the northeast. The new NHC forecast is very near the model consensus through the end of the forecast. Despite the recent agreement between the NHC forecast and the consensus, confidence in the forecast will remain low until we see better run-to-run consistency in the track model guidance. Shear and dry air may already be taking a toll on Victor, and SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment will get worse with time. All of the intensity models forecast that Victor will weaken over the next several days in response to the hostile environment, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast, which is heavily based on the IVCN multi-model consensus. By day 5, all of the dynamical models indicate that Victor will likely degenerate into a trough of low pressure, so dissipation is shown. Several models, including the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF indicate dissipation could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.0N 34.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.9N 37.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.6N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.5N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-10-01 22:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 012041 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 10
2021-10-01 22:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 012041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...VICTOR LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 34.3W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 34.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The forward speed of the tropical storm has slowed and a turn to the northwest is anticipated by tomorrow. Victor is then expected to move northwestward over the weekend and into early next week with slight fluctuations in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Victor is expected to gradually weaken over the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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