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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 33A
2021-10-01 01:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302343 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 800 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE SAM NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...DANGEROUS SURF EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 61.0W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 61.0 West. Sam is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this continued motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated on Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane into Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-09-30 22:57:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 302057 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Sam remains a formidable hurricane, with a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite imagery. The 25 n mi wide eye is surrounded by a fairly symmetric pattern of deep convective cloud tops, and the upper-level outflow pattern is very well defined. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system and found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 133 kt, and a highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface wind of 125 kt. Based on these observations, the advisory intensity is kept at 125 kt. Measurements from the aircraft also showed that the central pressure remains quite low, near 938 mb. Sam will continue to traverse waters of high oceanic heat content for another 12-18 hours, and the shear should remain fairly low for the next few days. Therefore, some intensification could still occur overnight. In any event, the system is expected to maintain major hurricane status for the next 36-48 hours. Over the weekend, a gradual weakening trend should commence due to cooler SSTs. However, Sam will likely remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane- force winds until the end of the forecast period. By 120 hours, simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models forecast the system's cloud pattern to resemble that of an extratropical low, and this is reflected in the official forecast, which shows extratropical status at that time. The official intensity forecast remains close to the HCCA corrected consensus model solution. Center fixes continue to show a gradual increase in forward speed, and the hurricane is moving northwestward, or about 320/12 kt. During the next 24-36 hours, Sam should turn toward the north as it moves around the western periphery of a large subtropical high over the eastern and central Atlantic. Then, the cyclone is expected to move generally northeastward in the flow between the anticyclone and a trough near Atlantic Canada. There is fairly close agreement in the track models through 60 hours or so. However, there are some significant differences in the model-predicted track of Sam at higher latitudes, probably due to variations in how the system interacts with the trough in the various guidance. The NHC track forecast follows the latest model consensus, TVCN. Although the core of Sam is predicted to pass east of Bermuda early Saturday, the tropical-storm-force wind field is forecast to expand and could pass very close to the island beginning late Friday night or early Saturday. Therefore, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 23.6N 60.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 28.5N 61.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 31.3N 61.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 33.8N 60.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 35.8N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 37.4N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 42.5N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 47.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2021-09-30 22:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 302055 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 37(45) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 33
2021-09-30 22:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302055 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...INTENSE HURRICANE SAM EXPECTED TO BRING LARGE SWELLS AND DANGEROUS HIGH SURF TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 60.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 60.9 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with an additional increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated on Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane into Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 33
2021-09-30 22:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 302054 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 60.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 60.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.5N 61.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.3N 61.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.8N 60.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.4N 56.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 42.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 47.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 60.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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