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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-30 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302042 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor has been relatively steady in strength during the past several hours. Satellite images continue to show that the storm has a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. However, recent microwave images indicate that the cyclone has yet to develop a well-defined inner core, which is likely why the system has not strengthened much despite the favorable environmental conditions. The Dvorak classifications are again unchanged and range from 35 to 45 kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Victor is still moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 12 kt. The storm is forecast to continue on that same general track for about another day as it remains on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. By late Friday, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to form over the central Atlantic, and that feature should erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The GFS has shifted westward this cycle and is now not far from the ECMWF track. The new NHC forecast track is nudged westward toward a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and HMON models. The standard consensus aids could be too far to the east since the latest run of the HWRF, which is a member of those models, is a significant outlier to the east. As mentioned above, although the storm has been in favorable conditions for strengthening during the past day or so, it has not taken full advantage likely due to its broad structure. The favorable environment for Victor should persist for about another 24 hours, so gradual strengthening is possible during that time period. However, by the weekend, the models show Victor moving into a region of moderate to strong southwesterly shear and a progressively drier airmass. These negative factors for the storm along with slightly cooler SSTs should cause Victor to lose strength this weekend and early next week. In fact, some of the models suggest that Victor could dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is again a little lower than the previous one, trending toward the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 9.9N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 10.6N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 11.6N 33.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.9N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.5N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 23.6N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 28.0N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-30 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 302036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE TROPICAL EAST ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 30.0W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 30.0 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. However, a weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-09-30 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 302036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-30 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 30.0W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 30.0W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 29.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.6N 31.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 33.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.9N 34.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.5N 36.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 40.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.6N 42.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 42.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 30.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 32A
2021-09-30 19:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301753 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 200 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING DANGEROUS HIGH SURF TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 60.5W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 60.5 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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