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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 20
2021-07-19 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 190232 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 ...FELICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 130.1W ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 130.1 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west is expected later tonight or on Monday. A general westward motion should then continue for a few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-07-19 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190232 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 19(39) X(39) X(39) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-07-19 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190231 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 130.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 130.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-07-18 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 182033 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 129.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 129.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.3N 130.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 132.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 134.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 137.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 140.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.0N 142.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 14.2N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 13.5N 154.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 129.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 19
2021-07-18 22:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 182033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 ...FEISTY FELICIA FINALLY WEAKENING FASTER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 129.0W ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 129.0 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today or tonight, followed by a west-southwestward track through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days. Felicia is a very small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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