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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2021-07-17 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 171441 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 125W 50 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 125W 64 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 130W 34 X 6( 6) 69(75) 10(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 34(35) 14(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 15(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 54(60) 2(62) X(62) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-07-17 16:40:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 171440 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.6W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.6W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 125.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 127.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 129.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 131.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.0N 133.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Seven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-07-17 16:40:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

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Tropical Depression Seven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-07-17 16:40:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021

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Tropical Depression Seven-E Public Advisory Number 1

2021-07-17 16:39:13| Tropical Depression LIDIA

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... Location: 16.8°N 109.2°W Max sustained: 35 mph Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

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