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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-07-17 22:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 172032 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 130W 34 1 21(22) 50(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 28(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 49(62) 1(63) X(63) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) X(38) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 15
2021-07-17 22:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 ...CATEGORY FOUR FELICIA MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 125.3W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 125.3 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the west is anticipated by late Sunday, followed by another turn toward the west-southwest early next week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today, and slight weakening is forecast by the end of the weekend. A faster rate of weakening is expected by early next week. Felicia is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-07-17 22:31:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 172031 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 125.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-07-17 16:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171444 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Felicia provided another surprise early this morning, with a ring of very cold cloud tops (
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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 14
2021-07-17 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 171441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 ...TINY BUT FEROCIOUS FELICIA CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 124.6W ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 124.6 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A slight turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn back toward the west late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today, and slight weakening is forecast by the end of the weekend. A faster rate of weakening is expected by early next week. Felicia is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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