je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2020-11-08 03:55:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 080255 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 4(14) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 3(15) 4(19) 4(23) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 3(15) 5(20) 4(24) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) 3(22) 4(26) 3(29) W PALM BEACH 34 X 8( 8) 22(30) 3(33) 2(35) 3(38) 1(39) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 14(15) 32(47) 4(51) 2(53) 2(55) 1(56) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X 7( 7) 33(40) 3(43) 2(45) 1(46) 1(47) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 11(11) 43(54) 3(57) 2(59) X(59) 1(60) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 1 25(26) 46(72) 3(75) 3(78) X(78) 1(79) MARATHON FL 50 X 4( 4) 38(42) 3(45) 2(47) X(47) 1(48) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 34 1 10(11) 40(51) 8(59) 6(65) 3(68) X(68) KEY WEST FL 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 5(30) 4(34) 1(35) 1(36) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 34 1 4( 5) 41(46) 15(61) 4(65) 2(67) 1(68) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 3(22) 2(24) X(24) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) 4(30) 4(34) 2(36) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 13(32) 10(42) 5(47) 3(50) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 10(26) 8(34) 4(38) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 9(24) 4(28) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 4(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 10(25) 3(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 8( 9) 10(19) 2(21) 1(22) 2(24) 1(25) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 17(18) 4(22) X(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) ANDROS 34 3 26(29) 3(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) 1(34) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 1(17) HAVANA 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 10(27) 4(31) 2(33) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) CIENFUEGOS 34 13 4(17) 1(18) X(18) 2(20) X(20) 1(21) CIENFUEGOS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 26 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 30A
2020-11-08 00:48:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072348 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...ETA STRENGTHENING AND HEADING FOR CUBA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 80.2W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line * Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas tonight. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.2 West. Eta has recently jogged toward the east, but is expected to resume a motion toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) tonight. A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday night, and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches) based on NOAA dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Isolated minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-11-07 21:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 072054 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta had strengthened to 50 kt with a central pressure of 994 mb. Since that time, the storm organization is unchanged in satellite imagery, while the central convection looks a little more ragged in radar data from Grand Cayman Island and Cuba. Eta is currently being affected by 25-35 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, and water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air approaching the inner core from the west. The initial motion now 050/14. There is little change to the forecast philosophy through the first 96 h of the forecast. A mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should steer Eta northeastward for the next 12 h or so, which would bring the center near or over the coast of central Cuba. Then from 12-96 h, the trough should cut off into a closed low near western Cuba, with Eta turning northward and eventually westward near the Florida Keys and south Florida as it merges with the low. The track guidance has shifted a little to the west over Cuba and a little to the south near Florida, possibly in response to data from the G-IV jet mission earlier today, and the new track forecast does likewise. The track guidance becomes quite divergent after 96 h, and the 96-120 h motion is now slower than the previous forecast as a result. The intensity forecast is tricky. Strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough is allowing the cyclone to strengthen. However, at some time in the next 24-48 h the shear and dry air entrainment should prevent any further strengthening. The intensity guidance shows a little intensification during the next 24-36 h with the bulk of the guidance peaking near 60 kt. After that time, the dry air should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is increased a bit from the previous forecast to show a 60-kt intensity at 24 and 36 h. This requires issuing a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba, and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for a few more hours in portions of the Cayman Islands, and are expected tonight and Sunday in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected Sunday night, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect. 4. A life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 20.4N 80.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.6N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1800Z 23.3N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 09/0600Z 24.7N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 25.2N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 25.7N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 26.1N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 30
2020-11-07 21:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...ETA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 80.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay, and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, incuding Florida Bay. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida, and west of Chokoloskee, Florida to Bonita Beach, Florida, including Lake Okeechobee. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line * Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.7 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, and pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday night, and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Isolated minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands for a few more hours, as well as in the warning areas in Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-11-07 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 072053 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 3(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 5(24) 2(26) 2(28) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 14(38) 3(41) 2(43) 1(44) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 3( 3) 36(39) 17(56) 4(60) 1(61) X(61) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 18(49) 4(53) 1(54) X(54) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 35(36) 17(53) 4(57) X(57) 1(58) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 28(32) 16(48) 5(53) 2(55) 1(56) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 4(24) 1(25) 1(26) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) 12(15) 18(33) 9(42) 4(46) 1(47) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) 1(17) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 29(41) 13(54) 2(56) 1(57) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 1(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 11(33) 2(35) 1(36) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 19(39) 4(43) 3(46) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 6(28) 4(32) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 4(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 5(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 6(29) 2(31) X(31) 1(32) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 11(12) 18(30) 3(33) 1(34) X(34) 1(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 35(36) 14(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) ANDROS 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 18 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) CAMAGUEY 34 23 10(33) X(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Sites : [623] [624] [625] [626] [627] [628] [629] [630] [631] [632] [633] [634] [635] [636] [637] [638] [639] [640] [641] [642] next »