je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-11-06 16:00:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 417 WTNT44 KNHC 061500 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Eta is producing organized convection in a large band over its northern and eastern quadrants, with the center located just off the coast of Belize near the western end of the band. These data, along with surface observations, also show that the circulation is elongated. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon, and a NOAA flight is scheduled for this evening. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/6 kt. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, with Eta expected to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly west-northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there are a lot of differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. Overall, the consensus models have shifted a little to the east and north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in those directions. Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone's life is similar to the previous forecast and lies a bit below the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. During this process, some of the guidance suggests the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop. There is a chance that during this time that Eta could regain hurricane strength, although this would be an intensity above the current guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands at this time, and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Cuba. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys later today or tonight. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall associated with Eta will continue to result in catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. 2. This weekend Eta is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Cayman Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions possible in portions of western and central Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.8N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-11-06 15:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 061455 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 2(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 2(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 6(31) 1(32) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 5(38) 1(39) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) 2(29) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) 1(28) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 27(31) 7(38) 2(40) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 8(31) 3(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) 3(38) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 2(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) 4(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 4(22) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) 1(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) 1(24) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) 1(27) 1(28) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 2(20) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 2(18) 1(19) 1(20) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 4(33) 1(34) X(34) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) 1(28) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 24
2020-11-06 15:56:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061455 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA... ...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 87.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 87.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected later today, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Bahamas and Southern Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-11-06 15:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 061455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 87.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 87.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 87.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-11-06 09:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060836 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that the circulation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasing near and over the center during the past several hours. Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Eta is located, so there has not been much additional data to analyze the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in analyzing the cyclone. The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment, and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as it tracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and for the cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days. However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broad structure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and some dry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nears Cuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction could limit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast for the 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on the trough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity models show Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba, and the NHC forecast does the same. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are still uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [629] [630] [631] [632] [633] [634] [635] [636] [637] [638] [639] [640] [641] [642] [643] [644] [645] [646] [647] [648] next »