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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 22

2020-11-06 03:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY... ...STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 87.8W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 87.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, with this motion continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will be over the western Caribbean Sea through Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday night, and be near Cuba on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again on Friday, with further strengthening possible through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands Saturday or Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number public advisory tropical

Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2020-11-06 03:53:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 060253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 2(20) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 2(27) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) 2(33) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 3(25) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) 2(25) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) 4(38) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) 5(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 5(33) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 7(28) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) 2(24) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) 1(24) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 4(28) 1(29) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) 1(12) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 4(22) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) 3(22) 1(23) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 1(31) 1(32) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 27(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number speed wind tropical

Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-11-06 03:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 87.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 85.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 81.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.6N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N 80.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-11-06 03:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060232 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of the cyclone. Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal 26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Public Advisory Number 10

2020-11-06 03:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ODALYS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 124.3W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 124.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward to the west-southwest by Friday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Odalys is expected to dissipate over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number public advisory cyclone

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