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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-19 16:56:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 191456 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-19 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...DISHEVELED PETER HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 56.5W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.5 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Based on data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today. Some slight weakening is expected tonight into Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), primarily northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the tropical storm could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late today through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-19 16:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191455 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 56.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 58.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 60.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.2N 63.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 66.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 67.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.5N 67.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 56.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-19 16:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191454 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 The low-level center of the depression was exposed on visible satellite imagery this morning but recently a new burst has formed. Since the morning scatterometer passes missed the depression, the intensity is held at 30 kt based on consensus T-2.0 values from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 330/12. The cyclone is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast track, and the new prediction lies near the middle of the tightly clustered track models. Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the next day or so, with wind shear forecast to drop off later today. Thus, the official forecast calls for strengthening during the next 24 hours, and is close to the lower half of the intensity guidance envelope, near the weaker global models. This forecast could be conservative, since SSTs will be near 27C and mid-level atmospheric moisture will be enough to support intensification. By 36-48 hours, the southwesterly shear will increase, which should end the opportunity for strengthening, and will likely cause slow weakening. The models hold onto this system through the 5 day period, but it is possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5 days if the shear is too much for the system to handle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.2N 28.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.7N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.7N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 18.9N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 22.7N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.3N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 28.3N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-19 16:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 191451 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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