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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 16:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 28.8W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 28.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 16:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191450 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 28.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 28.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 28.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.7N 30.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 32.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 33.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 35.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.7N 36.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 28.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-19 14:53:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 191253 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at 1500 UTC. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1300Z 17.6N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-19 14:53:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 191253 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 1300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 1300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 14:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 191 WTNT31 KNHC 191247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Special Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 56.0W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM AST (1300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.0 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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