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Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-19 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 190231 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-19 04:30:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190230 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 53.1W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands of the depression could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico later Sunday through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-19 04:30:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 52.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 53.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-18 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 221 WTNT45 KNHC 182034 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Odette appears to have completed extratropical transition, perhaps a little earlier than the global models want to admit. The cyclone has developed a frontal structure similar to that of a bent back occlusion, with cold-air stratocumulus clouds advecting eastward to the south of the center behind the trailing cold front. In addition, the remaining deep convection is closer to the system's triple point than multiple-swirled center of circulation. The initial intensity is highly uncertain since all three ASCAT instruments completely missed the area where the strongest winds were likely to have been occurring, and it is held at 40 kt based on continuity. The post-tropical cyclone has turned to the east-northeast and is moving a little faster--now with a motion of 060/16 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours while Odette is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After 24 hours, Odette is expected to detach from the prevailing flow, which will cause the cyclone to slow down and meander southeast of Newfoundland by days 3 through 5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend and continues to hedge toward a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. Now that Odette is extratropical, global models indicate that baroclinic forcing should support strengthening and expanding of the gale-force wind field during the next couple of days. During this evolution, the strongest winds will also migrate to the northern and western side of the circulation. The frontal low is expected to occlude in about 3 days, coincident with the beginning of its meandering motion, and that occlusion process should cause a slow weakening of the winds through the end of the forecast period. One caveat is that some of the models have been hinting that the occluded low could redevelop deep convection near the center and transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but there has not been enough consistency among the guidance to explicitly make that forecast. If the system's forecast track continues to shift southward toward warmer waters on days 3 through 5, that scenario could become a stronger possibility. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.1N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/1800Z 41.9N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0600Z 42.3N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0600Z 40.7N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1800Z 41.4N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z 43.2N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-18 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 182034 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 5 23(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) HALIFAX NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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