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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-12 04:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120253 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Paulette remains sheared and asymmetric, with all its deep convection north of its low-level center of circulation. Despite the shear, ASCAT-B data that just arrived showed maximum winds near or just over 55 kt. Since that instrument tends to under-sample the maximum winds, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. An upper-level low located to the west of Paulette is responsible for the southerly shear currently affecting the cyclone. Global model forecasts suggest that the shear will continue for another day or so, and only slight strengthening is likely through that period. By Sunday, the upper-level low will move farther southwest and the tropical cyclone will encounter a very favorable upper-air pattern. Paulette will likely strengthen further in response, possibly at a fast rate. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Paulette will be a hurricane when it nears Bermuda early Monday, and it could approach major hurricane strength early next week. The NHC intensity forecast has not changed since the last advisory. It is worth mentioning that Paulette could experience a period of slow development for the next 24 hours, followed by quick intensification, rather than the more steady strengthening shown by the NHC forecast. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda. Paulette has jogged slightly right of track during the past few hours, but the overall NHC forecast track is not different from the previous advisory. A building mid-level ridge to the north of Paulette will likely steer the tropical storm generally west-northwestward or northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The cyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The model spread remains relatively low, especially for the first few days. Confidence is high that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it is still too soon to specify exactly how close it will get. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids and is not far from any of the global model forecast. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more likely. A tropical storm watch is in effect and a hurricane watch could be required for the island early Saturday. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 25.8N 54.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-09-12 04:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 984 FONT12 KNHC 120250 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 49(58) 32(90) 3(93) X(93) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 43(62) 4(66) 1(67) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 4(43) 1(44) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 04:50:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE IT NEARS BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 54.8W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 54.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area late Sunday or early Monday. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 04:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 54.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-12 04:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120243 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 Doppler radar data from Miami and satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming better organized. The low-level center is estimated to be near the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection due to some northerly wind shear. Surface observations and satellite classifications support holding the initial intensity at 30 kt. The minimum pressure appears to be a little lower than before, now 1007 mb. The tropical depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A subtropical ridge extending from the southeast U.S. to the western Atlantic should steer the depression west-northwestward across south Florida tonight and Saturday morning and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken due to an approaching trough, but the trough is not expected to be strong enough to cause the cyclone to turn northward. Instead, the models suggest that a slow west-northwestward motion very near the northern Gulf coast is likely during the early and middle portions of next week. Although the models all show a relatively similar scenario, there is a fair amount of spread by the time the system nears the northern Gulf coast. The NHC track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the consensus aids. Several of the local National Weather Service forecast offices across the southeast U.S. will be launching weather balloons four times per day, which should provide the models with excellent data in hopes to provide better track guidance during the next couple of days. Since the depression is expected to move over very warm SSTs, once it reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, and remain in an environment of low wind shear and high moisture, gradual strengthening seems likely. The models suggest that there could be an increase in westerly shear around the time the cyclone is forecast to move inland along the northern Gulf coast in about 4 days. Based on these expected environmental conditions, strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the IVCN and HCCA models. The depression will likely be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast. Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible overnight and early Saturday along the southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Sunday night in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana late this weekend and early next week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 25.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 26.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 26.8N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 27.9N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 28.8N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 29.3N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 29.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 30.2N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/0000Z 31.3N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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