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Tropical Depression Nineteen Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-11 22:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112056 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 79.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of southeastern Florida from south of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast should also be monitoring the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 79.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to move inland over south Florida early on Saturday, move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm before moving across south Florida overnight. Otherwise it is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and gradually intensify through Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 6 to 12 hours. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding and prolong ongoing minor flooding on rivers in the Tampa Bay area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Nineteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-11 22:55:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 112055 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 79.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 79.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 80.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.2N 81.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.3N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 28.4N 85.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 87.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-11 22:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 062 WTNT43 KNHC 112051 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Deep convection has increased over the western semicircle of the circulation and is re-forming near the center. Based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications and ADT values from UW-CIMSS, the current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. Hopefully we will get a scatterometer pass over the system soon to give a better intensity estimate. Some strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, but increasing shear should halt the intensification process, and bring about weakening, thereafter. The official intensity forecast is above the latest model consensus. Rene continues to move west-northwestward and should gradually turn to the right while it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system for the next couple of days. In the latter half of the forecast period, a blocking high to the north and northwest of Rene should force the cyclone to turn toward the west and west-southwest. The new official track forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one in 3-5 days, following the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.7N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 112051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 41.1W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 41.1 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest followed by a turn toward the north-northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 112051 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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