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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-10 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101438 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Vertical shear appears to have lessened somewhat over Rene, with the estimated center more embedded within the convective cloud mass. The storm has also developed a better defined anticyclonic outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that will be used for the advisory intensity. Since the vertical shear is not expected to be strong for the next 48 hours or so, gradual strengthening is anticipated during that time, and Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. In the latter half of the forecast period, increased westerly shear over the tropical cyclone is expected, which should lead to weakening. Rene continues on a west-northwestward track, and is moving at about 285/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. Over the next few days, Rene should move around the western periphery of this ridge and turn from a west-northwestward to a north-northwestward heading. Around the end of the forecast period, a high building to the northwest of the cyclone will likely cause a significant slowing of the forward speed. The official track forecast is a little left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.6N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-10 16:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101438 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 The highest winds in a recent scatterometer pass have decreased a little since last evening, and they remain embedded within deep convection which is displaced to the north of the center of circulation. Paulette's intensity is estimated to have decreased to 45 kt based on this ASCAT pass and Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The sheared convection has been tugging Paulette's center northward at times, causing wobbles in the estimated longer-term west-northwestward motion of 295/9 kt. For the next 4 days or so, fluctuations in the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north of Paulette will cause the cyclone's trajectory to vary between west-northwest and northwest, with a peak in forward speed around day 3. At the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough is expected to move across the northeastern United States, with a mid-tropospheric high becoming established over the central Atlantic. This should allow Paulette to begin to recurve over the western Atlantic, turning northward by day 5. The only notable change in the track guidance on this cycle was a slight westward shift among some of the models on days 4 and 5, and the NHC track forecast follows suit, lying close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) aid. Southwesterly shear has increased over the cyclone as expected, with the latest UW-CIMSS analysis now between 35 and 40 kt. SHIPS diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about 12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next day or so. The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days. This more favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it moves in the vicinity of Bermuda. The new NHC intensity forecast has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA solutions. Therefore, additional upward adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 21.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-09-10 16:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 156 FONT13 KNHC 101438 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 101437 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 22(50) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 14
2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101437 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 ...RENE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 35.8W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 35.8 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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