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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 43
2020-09-22 22:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222050 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection, there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result, the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be moving westward into westerly mid-level shear. Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the 36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of the NHC track guidance models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 34.8N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT1/AL172020)
2020-09-22 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN.... As of 9:00 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 the center of Paulette was located near 34.8, -21.2 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 43
2020-09-22 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 222049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN.... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 21.2W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 21.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 43
2020-09-22 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222049 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 21.2W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 21.2W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 21.8W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 21.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2020-09-22 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 222049 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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