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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 37
2020-09-16 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 52.4W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2020-09-16 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 160234 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-15 22:37:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:37:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 20:37:03 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 36
2020-09-15 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152035 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Another fortuitous AMSR2 microwave pass over the cyclone showed the outer concentric ring open over the south semicircle and a more noticeable vertical tilt. Furthermore, the cloud tops associated with the deep convection in the north quadrant have warmed during the past several hours. Consequently, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt and is in best agreement with the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Paulette continues to lose its tropical characteristics as it mingles with the rapidly approaching baroclinic zone from the northwest. In fact, earlier successive METOP A and B scatterometer passes on Paulette revealed that the northwest quadrant 34-kt wind radii had nearly doubled in size due to the aforementioned invading frontal zone moving out of the Canadian Maritimes. The sea surface temperatures quickly decrease to less than 20C within 24 hours as Paulette accelerates east-northeastward. As a result, the cyclone should weaken rather quickly and complete its extratropical transition on Thursday, as indicated in the global models and the statistical-dynamical guidance. Paulette is moving east-northeastward, or 060/26 kt, and this motion should continue with a further increase in forward speed through Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn south-southeastward to southward as it moves within the western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus guidance. The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1110 UTC and 1424 UTC scatterometer passes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 41.4N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 44.0N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 45.8N 36.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z 45.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0600Z 43.9N 32.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1800Z 41.2N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1800Z 38.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1800Z 34.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2020-09-15 22:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 152035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 2(19) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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