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Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics

2017-08-19 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:40:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 20:40:37 GMT

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-08-19 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Kenneth is on a strengthening trend. The cloud pattern of the tropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer bands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation. A partial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye feature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically tilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of northeasterly shear. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are unanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to that value. Kenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days while the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest is forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a large-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States. The track models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth to keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight. After that time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of Kenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. An increase in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid in the weakening process. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over SSTs near 22 deg C. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 6

2017-08-19 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192034 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 123.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 123.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

2017-08-19 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KENNETH IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.9, -123.8 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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