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Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
2017-08-21 04:51:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KENNETH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 the center of Kenneth was located near 16.8, -129.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 11
2017-08-21 04:51:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210251 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...KENNETH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 129.1W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 129.1 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kenneth is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane may reach a slightly higher intensity Monday before commencing a weakening trend Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-08-21 04:51:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210251 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 128.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.4N 130.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.7N 131.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.3N 132.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 133.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 129.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
2017-08-20 22:38:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 20:38:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 21:23:26 GMT
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Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-08-20 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202033 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Kenneth has been strengthening rapidly during the last several hours. An eye has appeared in geostationary satellite images and deep convection has been increasing in intensity, especially to the east of the center. The latest Dvorak classifications have increased, and an average of the intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support raising the initial wind speed to 80 kt. The hurricane is still not gaining much latitude, and the initial motion is 280/11 kt, which is a little slower than before. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected on Monday as the hurricane moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, Kenneth is expected to move north-northwestward and slow down even more as it moves into a break in the ridge caused by a cut off low near the California coast. The track models have shifted a little to the east beyond 48 hours, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. Kenneth has already intensified more than expected, and it still has about another 24 hours in favorable environmental conditions. Therefore, additional strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term, in best agreement with the HCCA model. Beyond 24 hours, Kenneth is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 deg C and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. These unfavorable conditions combined with an increase in southerly shear beginning in about 72 hours should cause a steady weakening trend. Kenneth is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, when it will be over SSTs near 23 deg C and in wind shear conditions of nearly 30 kt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.2N 128.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 17.0N 129.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.1N 131.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 19.4N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 21.0N 133.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 24.5N 135.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 27.0N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1800Z 28.7N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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