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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-13 22:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 the center of Fred was located near 22.3, -79.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-13 22:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 132042 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 79.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches in Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the the north coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-13 22:42:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 132042 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 79.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 79.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.2N 82.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.4N 83.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.0N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.8N 85.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.2N 86.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 79.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-13 19:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 the center of Fred was located near 22.3, -78.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-13 19:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 131731 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 78.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, and Camaguey * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Interests in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving along or near the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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