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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-13 04:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 464 WTNT41 KNHC 130252 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this indicate that Fred's inner-core wind field Fred remains poorly organized. Also, data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft suggests that the 650-mb mid-level circulation center is titled at least 40 nmi to the east of the low-level center. The maximum 925-mb flight-level wind measured thus far has been 43 kt and the highest reliable SFMR surface wind speed sampled has been 33 kt. A blend of these data support maintaining a solid 30-kt intensity for this advisory, but Fred is right on the cusp of regaining tropical storm status. Fred has slowed down some more, with the initial motion estimate an uncertain 295/08 kt. The uncertainty in Fred's forward motion is related to the speed due to the low-level center jumping around every time a small convective tower develops within the larger cloud mass. However, the general motion of the wind field and the associated pressure envelope is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees. Otherwise, there is no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is expected to continue moving west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion near or just offshore the Florida west coast in the 48-to-72-hour period. On days 4 and 5, a slower northward motion is forecast as Fred moves into a developing weakness in the ridge. The latest track guidance has become more divergent, with the GFS model dissipating and then redeveloping Fred over south Florida in about 48 hours, with the other models taking a weakening cyclone more westward. The exception is the westward-trending ECMWF model, which moves Fred along the Florida west coast. The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly to the east or right of the previous advisory track after 24 hours, but lies to the left of the ECMWF model and between the NOAA-HCCA and TVCA consensus track models. Fred is forecast to remain under the influence of westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear for the next 72 hours. It is the magnitude of the shear that is in question. The GFS maintains 15-20 kt of shear for the next three days, whereas the ECMWF model decreases the shear to around 10 kt in the 24-to-60-hour period, with the latter scenario favoring some strengthening if Fred doesn't interact too much with the Florida peninsula. Due to the uncertainty in the amount of shear and land interaction that will be encountered, latest official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus model intensity forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. From Friday into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern and central Florida, and into the Big Bend of Florida. By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.5N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 24.2N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 25.5N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 29.1N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 31.8N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0000Z 34.4N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-13 04:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Fred was located near 21.5, -75.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-13 04:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130252 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...FRED MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 75.6W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas by Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is motion is expected through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening through Saturday, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later tonight or early Friday. Fred is expected to be a tropical storm as it nears the Florida Keys and south Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-08-13 04:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 130252 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 12(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 14(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 8(35) 1(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 18(32) 1(33) X(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 21(28) 1(29) X(29) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) 1(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 1(25) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) 1(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 1(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-13 04:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 130251 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N 80.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.5N 82.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.1N 84.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.8N 85.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.4N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 75.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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