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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-13 19:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 17:31:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 15:22:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-13 17:01:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 15:01:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 15:22:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-13 16:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 131451 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Fred remains disorganized this morning. The low-level center, which is currently over the barrier islands of the north coast of Cuba, is exposed to the northwest of the main convective mass due to moderate southwesterly vertical shear. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft show winds of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The central pressure is 1013 mb based on a combination of aircraft data and surface observations. The center has jogged a bit to the left during the past several hours, which has brought it to the Cuban coast. The longer-term initial motion is 295/10. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Fred approaches the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the center along the northern coast of Cuba today, near the Florida Keys and the southwestern coast of Florida on Saturday, and near or over the coast of the Florida Panhandle Sunday night or Monday. After that, a northward turn is expected as Fred moves into a weakness in the ridge over the southeastern United States. With both the initial position and the track guidance shifting westward since the last advisory, the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the west. The new track is east of the consensus models, especially from 24-60 h, and thus some additional adjustments could occur later today if the current model trends continue. Fred is continuing to experience about 20 kt of westerly or southwesterly vertical wind shear, and these conditions should continue for at least another 24 hours. Between that and land interaction, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening during this time. After that, there is still relatively poor agreement on how much shear Fred will experience as it crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the ECMWF and the UKMET forecasting less shear than the GFS and CMC global models. Due to the uncertainty, the intensity forecast will keep the previous peak intensity of 45 kt. However, the intensity guidance during this period has trended a little higher, and the 45 kt peak is now a little below the upper edge of the guidance. It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains, strongest winds, and a chance of tornadoes will be. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in that area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST OF CUBA 12H 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 24.2N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 25.6N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 28.7N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 30.2N 85.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 33.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-08-13 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 131448 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 1 23(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MARATHON FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X 21(21) 9(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) KEY WEST FL 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) X(25) 1(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 2(30) 1(31) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 2(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) 1(27) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-13 16:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 the center of Fred was located near 22.3, -78.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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