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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-11-05 06:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050543 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...XAVIER BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 105.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.8 West. Xavier is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected today, followed by a westward motion by Tuesday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to remain offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico and begin to move farther away from the coast later today. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. Isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible over Michoacan and Colima. This rainfall may produce flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-10-22 19:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221736 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILLA MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 107.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible today. Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft that was en route to Willa experienced a safety issue before entering the storm and had to return to base. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight and Tuesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-10-09 07:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090551 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...MICHAEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 85.7W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located by and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 85.7 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tonight. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-09-26 13:52:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 579 WTNT32 KNHC 261152 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 800 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...KIRK HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 53.5W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe and Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday night. On the forecast track, Kirk is expected to approach Barbados and the northern Windward Islands Thursday afternoon and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk moves through the central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and evening. Rapid weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-09-05 01:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 924 WTNT32 KNHC 042355 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 87.9W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including Lake Pontchartrain * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 87.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area this evening or tonight, and then move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon could still become a hurricane before landfall occurs along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is forecast after Gordon moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A NOAA buoy located about 10 miles south of Orange Beach, Alabama has recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing site on Dauphin Island, Alabama has measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A wind gust to 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Gulf Shores, Alabama. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread onshore during the next several hours within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions forecast by this evening in the hurricane warning area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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