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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-19 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 191435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI STILL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 70.5W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 70.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane on Friday with additional strengthening predicted to occur this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-19 16:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191434 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.7N 71.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.4N 72.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.9N 72.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 70.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 41.6N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 42.3N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 70.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-19 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 08:55:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 09:35:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-19 10:54:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021 Compared to microwave images from earlier on Wednesday, GMI microwave data from last evening revealed that Henri's structure had deteriorated somewhat, with convection on the west side of the mid-level eye having mostly dissipated. This degradation is likely the result of strong deep-layer shear and dry air in the mid levels. Satellite intensity estimates have either remained steady or decreased a bit, and Henri's initial intensity is therefore held at 60 kt. This value is supported by two evening scatterometer passes, which had peak winds of 52 kt and 57 kt. The GMI and ASCAT data revealed that the center is slightly farther south than previously estimated, and Henri has been moving south of due west, or 260/8 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes toward the Ohio Valley, and global models are in agreement that this trough will cut off over the central Appalachians in about 48 hours. As a result, the ridge currently steering Henri westward is expected to relocate over the northern Gulf coast, with the cut-off low causing Henri to accelerate northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by late Friday through Sunday. Then, mid-level ridging over Quebec is likely to cause Henri to slow down considerably in the vicinity of southeastern New England or the adjacent offshore waters by Monday. The latest suite of deterministic track models have much less spread compared to on Wednesday, with fairly good agreement on the scenario described above. However, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to show a wider assortment of solutions, with stronger storms tending to move closer to the U.S. coast and weaker storms moving farther offshore. With the tight clustering of the current guidance, the trajectory of the new NHC track forecast was not changed much from the previous iteration, although it is a little faster during the time that Henri accelerates to the north. The biggest point here is that it's still too soon to know exactly how close Henri's center will get to the coast of New England. The north-northeasterly shear affecting Henri is not expected to abate for another 24-36 hours. Once the shear does decrease, however, warm waters should foster strengthening, up until Sunday when Henri is expected to move north of the Gulf Stream. An increase in southerly shear and Henri's slow motion over the colder waters off New England should then cause weakening on days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a little below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are being influenced by the seemingly over-aggressive HWRF and COAMPS-TC models, and this new forecast is very similar to the previous prediction. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. late this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check for updates to the forecast. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 29.5N 70.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 35.7N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 38.2N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 41.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 42.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-19 10:54:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 19 the center of Henri was located near 29.5, -69.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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