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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-08-19 22:57:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 192057 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Grace has now been inland for almost 12 hours and the inner core structure has been gradually decaying. In fact, the low-level center is now partially exposed to the north of the mid-level vortex which still has the majority of the deep convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt this advisory, assuming a bit more weakening of the low-level center has occurred since 1800 UTC. Environmental conditions appear favorable for Grace to restrengthen after the storm moves offshore this evening. However, it will take a bit of time for the inner-core to reorganize before a faster rate of intensification can occur. After that process occurs, significant intensification is possible, and the latest intensity forecast makes Grace a hurricane again by 24 hours and is near the upper end of the intensity guidance by 36 hours when Grace will be just inland over Mexico. However, it remains possible that the storm could intensify more than indicated between the 24 and 36 hour points, when both the global and regional high-res hurricane model guidance suggests Grace will be near peak intensity. Grace is still moving a bit north of due west at 280/13 kt. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 6-12 hours and Grace should be emerging offshore of the western Yucatan Peninsula later this evening. Thereafter, a strong mid-level ridge oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of Grace is likely to steer the cyclone towards the west, and then west-southwest as it nears mainland Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, staying close to the multi-model consensus aids. Although Grace is likely to dissipate by 60 hours over the high terrain of Central Mexico, the mid-level circulation should survive and emerge into the East Pacific. This feature could contribute to the formation of a new tropical cyclone in that basin. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue this afternoon and evening across the northern Yucatan Peninsula but should subside later tonight. 2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 20.8N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 19.6N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2021-08-19 22:52:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 192052 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PESCA MX 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPICO MX 34 X 7( 7) 32(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TUXPAN MX 34 X 14(14) 65(79) 4(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 38(38) 8(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 20(21) 26(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MERIDA MX 50 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-19 22:51:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE SOON TO EMERGE OFF THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Grace was located near 20.6, -90.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 26
2021-08-19 22:51:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192051 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...GRACE SOON TO EMERGE OFF THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 90.2W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM W OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 90.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to emerge off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue moving into southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Re-intensification is likely after the center emerges offshore into the Gulf of Mexico. Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. An unofficial report from Merida, Mexico recently measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 73 mph (118 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall by early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-08-19 22:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 192050 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CAMPECHE * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 50SE 40SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 90.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 89.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.8N 92.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 60SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.7N 94.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 99.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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