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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-20 04:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 938 WTNT23 KNHC 200253 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.8N 73.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.6N 71.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.1N 70.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 70.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.7N 65.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-20 01:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 23:41:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 21:28:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-20 01:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Grace was located near 20.7, -91.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 26A
2021-08-20 01:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192341 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 91.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 91.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to move away from the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Intensification is likely now that the center has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall by early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-19 23:06:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 21:06:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 21:06:20 GMT
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