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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2021-08-15 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 152035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 8 10(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 18(18) 12(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 1 18(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) APALACHICOLA 34 17 47(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) APALACHICOLA 50 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 38 32(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 11 55(66) 7(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 30(30) 17(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 11(11) 15(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 10(10) 13(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 870W 34 13 33(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-15 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO YANKEETOWN... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 26.8, -85.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-15 19:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 17:48:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 15:29:09 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 19:48:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE... As of 2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 17.3, -66.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-08-15 19:48:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151748 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 66.8W ABOUT 145 MI...90 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 66.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible until Grace moves over Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast while the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Some restrengthening could occur if the center moves back over water on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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