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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-14 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142043 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 Grace is a poorly organized tropical storm this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters were unable to close off a circulation, at least at their flight level of 5000 feet, but dropsonde observations and reports from some of the islands in the Lesser Antilles suggest that there's at least a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface. The various data also indicate that the center has sped up, or re-formed, and is located farther southwest than previously estimated. Based on the aircraft data and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. Both the future track and intensity of Grace have a high level of uncertainty. For the track, the forecast is likely to be complicated by the fact that the system doesn't currently have a tight low-level circulation, and the center could always re-form at any time, especially with convection ongoing farther to the north. In addition, the storm has not yet slowed down, and in fact, the initial motion is estimated to be toward the west (275 degrees) at 23 kt. The guidance envelope has made a notable southward shift due to the adjustment of the initial position, and the models insist that Grace will primarily have a west-northwestward heading for much of the forecast period with the speed gradually decreasing during the next 48 hours or so. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward accordingly, although any re-formations of the center could cause this track to shift again in future advisory cycles. If Grace slows down as forecast--which is obviously not a sure thing--environmental conditions should be conducive to allow for some strengthening before the system reaches the Greater Antilles. The southward adjustment in the official forecast now takes Grace over the Greater Antilles for a longer period of time, and the official intensity forecast is therefore lowered beyond 48 hours. This is a middle-of-the-road solution, and actually lower than most of the intensity guidance. If the forecast track shifts north or south, the system could strengthen further over water. Alternatively, Grace could go the way of Fred and dissipate before the end of the 5-day period. In the end, the exact track of the center and the intensity of the system will likely not be as important as the heavy rainfall that is forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles during the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR DOMINICAN REP. 60H 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR HAITI 72H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER CUBA 96H 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER CUBA 120H 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-14 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 142043 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 1(29) X(29) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 11(11) 16(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SABA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) AVES 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-14 22:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO TO CABO ENGANO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO CABO ENGANO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 60.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 59.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 66.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.3N 70.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 72.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.8N 84.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 60.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-14 19:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...GRACE NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 16.2, -58.7 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-08-14 19:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141756 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...GRACE NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 58.7W ABOUT 185 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo Engano * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to Cabo Engano A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for this area later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was estimated by extrapolation near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 58.7 West. Preliminary reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center may be located farther to the southwest, and a relocation could be required in the 500 PM AST advisory. Grace is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, over the Dominican Republic on Monday, and then between the southeastern Bahamas and Cuba on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles Sunday night through Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night into Monday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential mudslides. By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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