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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-14 19:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 17:56:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 15:29:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-14 16:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 14:54:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Aug 2021 15:29:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-14 16:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 Grace is sending mixed signals on its intensity this morning. The storm has been producing persistent convective bursting since overnight, which would suggest that some strengthening has occurred. The latest subjective data-T numbers are 2.5 (35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, while objective satellite estimates are higher, roughly between 45-50 kt. Then, an ASCAT pass from 1302 UTC showed winds between 35-40 kt. Given these data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Grace this afternoon to provide a better estimate of the storm's intensity. Grace is speeding along toward the west (280 degrees) at 19 kt. Mid-level ridging, entrenched over the western Atlantic, is expected to weaken slightly during the next couple of days. This evolution should cause Grace to slow down to 10-15 kt by Sunday night and Monday and take on a west-northwestward heading. That general trajectory should continue through the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48-60 hours or so, showing Grace moving near or across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. On days 3-5, there is a little more spread, with a few models keeping the system on a southern track across Cuba while others show tracks across the Bahamas. The NHC track forecast splits this difference and continues to show a track running between Cuba and the Bahamas, very close to the HCCA consensus solution. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be 10 kt or less for the next 36 hours or so while Grace is approaching the islands of the Greater Antilles. The thermodynamic environment also appears conducive for strengthening, but the system's continued fast motion is likely to be an inhibiting factor on the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side, bringing Grace's intensity up to 50 kt by the time the storm reaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but it should be noted that this forecast is on the lower side of the guidance. Only one model, the HWRF, brings Grace to hurricane strength, but it does this by having the storm move farther north and avoid land interaction altogether. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain on days 3-5 since it depends on exactly how much Grace moves over the Greater Antilles, and there is some model signal that increasing northeasterly upper-level winds over the Bahamas and Florida could become a negative factor. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and early Sunday, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic by early Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Florida next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.8N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.5N 63.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO 48H 16/1200Z 18.6N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REP. 60H 17/0000Z 19.4N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REP. 72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 18/1200Z 22.8N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 25.4N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-14 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 16.2, -57.9 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-14 16:53:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 141453 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 2(21) X(21) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 26(35) 1(36) X(36) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) 1(31) X(31) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 34(34) 8(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 21(53) 1(54) X(54) 1(55) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 58(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) VIEQUES PR 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 10(10) 45(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X 21(21) 43(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT CROIX 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 41(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABA 34 X 66(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) SABA 50 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SABA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 68(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 1 53(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BARBUDA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 34 1 68(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ANTIGUA 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 2 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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