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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-11 10:46:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110846 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 Fred's satellite and radar presentation have changed little since it became a tropical storm yesterday evening. The system consists mainly of a circularly shaped area of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70C on infrared images, with some rain bands trying to wrap around the center on radar images. The outer banding features have become indistinct on satellite imagery at the moment. Upper-level outflow remains well defined. Wind gusts to tropical storm force were reported at elevated sites at Cabo Rojo on the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in agreement with Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from UW-CIMSS. A west-northwestward motion appears to have resumed, at about 14 kt. The system should continue to move on this heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed, on the south side of a mid-level subtropical ridge, for the next 2-3 days. Around 72 hours, Fred should begin to turn to the right as it nears the western periphery of the ridge. During the next 3-5 days a generally northwestward track, toward a weakness in the ridge, is likely. The official forecast track is about the same as the previous one, and in good agreement with the latest TVCA and HCCA model consensus guidance. Again, users are advised that 4- and 5-day track forecasts have average errors of 175 and 200 miles, respectively. Although the vertical shear is currently low, which would normally be conducive for strengthening, the cyclone will soon begin to interact with the land mass of Hispaniola. This should cause some weakening later today and tonight. Some restrengthening should occur after the system moves away from that island. However, given the likely disruption of the circulation by the mountains, Fred may be slow to regain intensity. Moreover, an upper-level low and trough near Florida in 2-3 days could impart increasing west-southwesterly shear and limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and the LGEM guidance. As usual, there is significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast for the latter part of the period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Dominican Republic this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late today. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today. Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 18.0N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 24.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 27.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-11 10:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 110846 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 2(19) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 4(21) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) 1(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 5 10(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SANTO DOMINGO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-11 10:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED NEARING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 11 the center of Fred was located near 18.0, -68.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-11 10:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110845 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 ...FRED NEARING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 68.2W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques, and for the U.S. Virgin Islands, is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.2 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-11 10:45:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110845 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.2W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.2W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 67.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.1N 80.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 68.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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