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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-08-11 05:25:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110325 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 15...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Corrected direction of motion in the second paragraph. Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated at 320/7 kt, attempting to follow the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days as the large cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast. The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to the track guidance consensus. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient, with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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Tropical Storm Fred Graphics

2021-08-11 04:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 02:59:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 02:59:47 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)

2021-08-11 04:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 10 the center of Fred was located near 17.4, -66.8 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 6

2021-08-11 04:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110258 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 66.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located by the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Fred is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass near the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast overnight before Fred reaches eastern Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently measured by a Weatherflow observing site in Las Mareas along the south-central coast of Puerto Rico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-08-11 04:57:46| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

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