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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-11 16:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 14:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 15:29:20 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-11 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Kevin was located near 21.0, -116.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 17
2021-08-11 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...KEVIN ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 116.8W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 116.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by early Thursday and then a remnant low by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur over the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-08-11 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Shortwave infrared images show that the center of Kevin's broad circulation is exposed to the northeast of a persistent cluster of deep convection, resulting from 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly shear over the system. With Dvorak T-numbers holding steady at T3.0 from TAFB and T2.5 from SAB, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Recent geostationary images and a 0943 UTC GCOM overpass warranted a slight adjustment to the initial position, which now makes the initial motion northwestward at 325/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric high located over northern Mexico is expected to keep Kevin on a northwestward to west-northwestward path for the next several days, which is shown by all the track models. Most differences among the models are speed related, with the ECMWF being one of the fastest models and the GFS one of the slowest. In general, the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids, but the initial position adjustment required a fairly noteworthy northeastward shift in the forecast track compared to the previous advisory. Kevin's center is just about ready to move over waters cooler than 26 degrees Celsius and should be over waters as cold as 21 degrees in a couple of days. Also, the shear affecting the storm is only expected to diminish gradually, and these conditions should induce imminent weakening. In line with the latest intensity guidance, Kevin is likely to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours and then become a remnant low in about 48 hours when it loses all of its deep convection. This scenario is shown by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-08-11 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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