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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-07-31 10:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 A prominent convective band now wraps about halfway around the southeast to west side of Hilda's center, and another band is taking shape to the north of the center. With the improved organization, Dvorak estimates increased to a consensus T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a 0520 UTC ASCAT-B pass confirmed that indeed maximum winds are about 45 kt. This is being set as Hilda's initial intensity, although it could be a little conservative since objective ADT estimates have trended higher than that since 0600 UTC. A mid-tropospheric ridge currently extends from northern Mexico westward across the Baja California peninsula to about 120W and is steering Hilda west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. Although this ridge is expected to build westward and keep Hilda on a west-northwestward course, potential interactions with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and another low pressure area to the east could cause the storm to slow down over the next 3 days and oscillate a bit around that general heading. There is slightly more spread among the track models than is typical, with the HWRF a notable southern outlier and the GFS and HMON models having some of the faster solutions due to greater interaction with T.D. Nine-E. That being said, the overall track guidance has trended a little slower and farther south on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has therefore been adjusted in that direction from the previous forecast, lying close to the TVCE multi-model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA consensus aid. Hilda is currently in a light-shear regime and over sea surface temperatures of about 29 degrees Celsius, so continued strengthening is anticipated in the short term with Hilda likely to reach hurricane strength by tonight or early Sunday. However, global models are suggesting that the shear may increase out of the east during the next 24 hours, and then Hilda will be near cooler waters in 2 to 3 days. Therefore, Hilda is likely to reach its peak intensity in about 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast at that time is near the upper end of the guidance suite. Hilda is expected to move over even cooler waters after 48 hours, which should cause a gradual weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)

2021-07-31 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILDA STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 the center of Hilda was located near 13.3, -115.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 3

2021-07-31 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 310835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...HILDA STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 115.7W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Sunday. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2021-07-31 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 310835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 17 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 10N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 4 46(50) 35(85) 2(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 50 X 6( 6) 38(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 37(52) 5(57) X(57) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-07-31 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 310834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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