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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-07-31 04:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 02:35:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 03:22:38 GMT
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-07-31 04:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Hilda has gotten a little better organized during the past several hours, with the low-level center now near the eastern end of a long convective band that is present in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, and based on these the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The storm is currently in an environment of light northwesterly vertical wind shear with the bulk of the outflow to the south. Conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening during the next 72 h or so, as Hilda is expected to be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an environment of light to moderate shear. Based on this, the first part of the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast and calls for Hilda to become a hurricane between 24 and 36 h and peak in intensity around 60 h. After that, the forecast becomes less confident. The cyclone is expected to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 72 h, and this should cause gradual weakening as indicated in the official forecast. The official forecast for this period has been nudged downward due to the forecast motion over cooler water. However, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the possibility that Hilda will interact with other nearby systems - the GFS forecasting with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and the ECMWF forecasting interaction with a disturbance to the east. Should either of these interactions occur, Hilda could weaken at a different rate than currently forecast. The initial motion is 290/13. Hilda is located on the south side of a subtropical ridge, and if the storm does not interact with other nearby weather systems a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through the forecast period. The new forecast track is shifted a little north of the previous track, and it lies just to the south of the various consensus models. If Hilda does interact with either Tropical Depression Nine-E or the disturbance to the east, it will lead to erratic motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-07-31 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 the center of Hilda was located near 13.2, -114.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 2
2021-07-31 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 310232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021 ...HILDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 114.6W ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 114.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-07-31 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 021 FOPZ13 KNHC 310232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 25 3(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 10N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 18(18) 67(85) 6(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 49(50) 9(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 22(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 38(48) 7(55) X(55) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 2(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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