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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-07-20 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 423 WTPZ41 KNHC 200237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of around 25 deg C and within a cooler and drier air mass. After an earlier burst of strong convection, all that remains of it is limited to the northeastern quadrant along with cloud tops now having warmed to -55C to -60C. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 45 kt, and that is the intensity assigned for this advisory. Additional weakening is forecast through the remainder of the 72-h forecast period due to the cyclone remaining over SSTs near 25C, westerly vertical wind shear increasing to more than 30 kt by 24 hours, and continued entrainment of drier and cooler low- to mid-level air. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate remains a little south of due west, or 265/13 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to steer Felicia west-southwestward to westward over the next few days until the small cyclone dissipates by 96 hours, if not sooner. Felicia will likely cross into the Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies between the tightly packed TVCE and NOAA-HCCA track forecast models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.1N 134.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.3N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 14.2N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1200Z 13.6N 147.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z 13.0N 150.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-07-20 04:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-07-20 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 200235 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 139.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.2N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 147.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N 150.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 134.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Storm Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-20 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Felicia was located near 16.1, -134.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 24
2021-07-20 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 134.8W ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 134.8 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Felicia is expected to become a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon and degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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