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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-07-14 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics

2021-07-09 16:47:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 14:47:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 14:47:08 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-09 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF ELSA OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 the center of Elsa was located near 41.0, -72.1 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 38

2021-07-09 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 091446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway. A frontal boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the cyclone. Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition this afternoon. Buoy and surface observations indicate that the cyclone's intensity has changed little since early this morning. Based on those data, Elsa's peak winds and minimum pressure remain 45 kt and 1000 mb for this advisory, respectively. Elsa continues to move quickly northeastward or 045/27 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating northeastward over the next day or two as it remains embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow. After 48 hours, the system is expected to slow before it dissipates over the north Atlantic around day 3. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but has shifted slightly southward after 24 hours and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa completes its extratropical transition. After that time, gradual weakening is anticipated and the wind speed forecast calls for the system to weaken below gale-force in a couple of days. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north Atlantic by early next week, and the official forecast follows suit. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves near southern and coastal New England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area in Long Island and southern New England through this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 41.0N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 38

2021-07-09 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 091446 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.0N 72.1W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by surface and radar data over eastern Long Island near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 72.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near eastern Long Island and the coast of southern New England through this afternoon, and then offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. Gradual weakening is forecast to occur over the weekend. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A WeatherFlow site near Jones Beach, New York recently reported a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) and a WeatherFlow site near Block Island Jetty observed a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA buoy 44025 is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid- afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon over southeastern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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