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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 37
2021-07-09 10:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090844 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 Elsa has become better organized this early Friday morning as evidenced by a tightly coiled convective band that wraps completely around the low-level circulation center, along with Doppler radar velocities of more than 80 kt detected between 3000-7000 ft. Upper-level outflow has expanded in all directions except the southwestern quadrant, and the GFS and ECMWF models have assessed the vertical wind shear to only be 10 kt and 13 kt, respectively, over the center. Wind gusts to 68 kt and 62 kt were recently measured in Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, and Beach Haven, New Jersey, respectively. However, radar data suggest that these wind gusts were possibly associated with the passage of nearby tornadic circulations and were not due to Elsa's larger wind field. The central pressure of 1000 mb is based on a nearby pressure report of 1000.6 mb from the Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, WeatherFlow site, but this value could be conservative. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on recent observations from offshore buoys. The initial motion is estimated to be 045/27 kt. Elsa is forecast by the latest global and regional models to continue accelerating northeastward today through Saturday due to the system being embedded within deep-layer southwesterly mid-latitude flow. Elsa should move over southeastern New England today and over Atlantic Canada late tonight and on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast lies on top of the previous advisory track and is close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Elsa will be moving over 22-deg-C and cooler sea-surface temperatures by 6 hours and beyond, which should further hasten the ongoing extratropical transition process. This transition is expected to be completed in 18 hours or so when Elsa is forecast to be located over Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves near Long Island and southern and coastal New England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by late this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 39.4N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 12H 09/1800Z 42.2N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 46.6N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1800Z 51.3N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z 55.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/1800Z 59.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-09 10:38:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 08:38:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 08:38:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2021-07-09 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 613 FONT15 KNHC 090837 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PTX BASQUES 34 X 7( 7) 44(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SYDNEY NS 34 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 61(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONCTON NB 34 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ST JOHN NB 34 X 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) EASTPORT ME 34 1 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WORCESTER MA 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BOSTON MA 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HYANNIS MA 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) HYANNIS MA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) NANTUCKET MA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW LONDON CT 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MONTAUK POINT 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ISLIP NY 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ATLANTIC CITY 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DOVER DE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-09 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA RACING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 the center of Elsa was located near 39.4, -74.3 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 37
2021-07-09 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 090837 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 ...ELSA RACING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... ...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.4N 74.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states early this morning, and move near or over the northeastern United States by late morning and this afternoon and tonight. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) was measured by a WeatherFlow site in Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, while a wind gust to 71 mph was observed in Beach Haven, New Jersey. These two wind reports appear to have been associated with nearby tornadoes. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches), based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states from late this morning into the afternoon. RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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