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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 35
2021-07-08 22:56:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 082056 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...ELSA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...HEADED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 78.3W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Little River Inlet has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 78.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move over North Carolina this afternoon, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the North Carolina coast today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 35
2021-07-08 22:56:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 082056 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is still producing some very heavy rains. Elsa's low-level center is a bit elongated from southwest to northeast, but surface synoptic data indicate that it has moved into northern North Carolina. The storm continues to gradually accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is 040/18 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next 1-2 days as the cyclone moves along with the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the previous one and similar to the multi-model consensus, TVCA. The global models suggest that not much additional strengthening is likely. Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours so the official forecast shows an extratropical transition by late Friday. This is also supported by cyclone phase analyses of the model fields from Florida State University. Key Messages: 1.As Elsa moves from North Carolina to Virginia today and this evening, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 36.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2021-07-08 22:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 082047 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 4( 4) 49(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WORCESTER MA 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BOSTON MA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) HYANNIS MA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 57(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW HAVEN CT 34 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HARTFORD CT 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW LONDON CT 34 1 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 1 42(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PHILADELPHIA 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 15 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BALTIMORE MD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 61 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) OCEAN CITY MD 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) WALLOPS CDA 34 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) WALLOPS CDA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK NAS 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NORFOLK NAS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) NORFOLK VA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ELIZABETH CTY 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ROCKY MT NC 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) CAPE HATTERAS 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) NEW RIVER NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MOREHEAD CITY 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 35
2021-07-08 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 082036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 78.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 78.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-08 19:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 17:58:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 15:23:05 GMT
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