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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-07-07 17:04:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 071503 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 30...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Corrected Taylor County to Dixie County in the first paragraph. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has made several fixes in Elsa this morning, and recent observations from the plane indicated that the center is now on the coast making landfall. The aircraft found that the central pressure remained about steady with maximum winds of 55 kts up to landfall. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds are being reported from observing sites within the warning area, with an unofficial report of a sustained wind of 54 kt gusting to 62 kt at Horseshoe Beach in Dixie County, Florida during the past half hour. Center fixes indicate that Elsa has continued northward, with a motion estimate of 360/12 kt. Elsa should turn toward the north-northeast today as it moves along the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. On Thursday, the cyclone should begin to accelerate northeastward on the southeast side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada. The official track forecast is on top of the latest multi-model consensus, TVCA, solution. This is only slightly to left of the previous NHC track, and shows the center moving near the northeastern U.S. coast within the next 48 hours. Weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land during the next 36 hours or so, and the official intensity forecast closely resembles the decay-SHIPS guidance. Since winds of 35 kt are possible near the coast well to the southeast of the center within the next day or two, a tropical storm warning is in effect for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast. Some slight reintensification is shown when the center moves near the coast in 48-60 hours. However, since the water temperatures are rather cool near the northeast coast, strengthening will probably be influenced by baroclinic forcing associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough. The system will likely become extratropical by 72 hours if not sooner while it moves through Atlantic Canada. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is still a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Tropical storm conditions wile continue today across portions of the northeast Gulf coast today within the warning area. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 29.9N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR COAST 60H 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR COAST 72H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-07 17:01:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 15:01:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 15:01:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-07 17:00:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 15:00:53 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-07 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 the center of Elsa was located near 29.9, -83.6 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 30
2021-07-07 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 071459 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 83.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued. The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a generally northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as Elsa moves further inland this afternoon into tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An unofficial weather station at Horseshoe Beach, Florida recently measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h). Earlier, a C-MAN station at Cedar Key, Florida measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) gusting to 59 mph (95 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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